Perfect World (002624) 2019 annual report performance preview comment: film and television business drags down the overall performance in the future, light loading and optimistic, optimistic about 20 years of game products
I. Event Overview (1) The company announced the 2019 annual report performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 will reach 14.
5 ppm, a ten-year average of 9.
01%; Non-recurring gains and losses in 2019 are approximately USD 400 million, mainly due to the uncompleted compensation gains of Tianjin Tongxin Film & Television Media’s performance commitments, which are included in the government subsidies for the current profit and loss, and the profit or loss of the client’s investment or management assets2.
600 million; net profit after deducting non-attribution reached 10.
5 ppm, a ten-year average of 20.
(2) The net profit attributable to the mother in the single quarter of 19Q4 was -0.
750,000 yuan, 3 in 18Q4.
900 million; net profit after deduction is -3.
700 million, 18Q4 is 3.
Second, analyze and judge the overall performance of the film and television business dragged down the overall performance, inventory, goodwill accrued depreciation, impairment preparations are completed, the performance of light-loaded companies in the future is expected to gradually return to the mother net profit of 9% in 19 years?
15%, 19Q4 single quarter net profit attributable to mother is -0.
7.5 billion US dollars, mainly because the film and television business is affected by factors such as the market and the industry’s overall environment, and its performance has continued to decline, which is expected to reach 3-3.
Mainly 1, the company intends to make provision 3 for the inventory.
5-4 million, the provision for falling prices is mainly for inventory products (projects that have been filmed and issued licenses, 19H1 is 7.
The TV drama industry generally has an 18-month production cycle. From mid-2018 to the third quarter of 2019, it is at a stage of high costs (high cost of shooting inventory) and low revenue (lower channel-side prices).The inventory photographed at that time made provision for price reduction, and the risk of price reduction of the remaining inventory was small.
2. The company intends to make provision for impairment of the goodwill of Tianjin Tongxin Film and Television Media.
800 million (19H1 goodwill is 6.
9.8 billion), which basically lies in the fact that 70% of Beijing Youth Hello Culture Media Co., Ltd. of Tongxin Film & Television Holdings Co., Ltd. cannot fulfill its performance commitments in 2019, so it makes provision for impairment of goodwill.Net profit is not less than 1.
300 million, 1.
4 trillion, 19H1 company’s original good book carrying ratio of 13.
6 trillion, impairment provision has been made to 3.
At 9 trillion, the goodwill of Tianjin Tongxin Media accounted for 72% of the goodwill without provision for impairment. The remaining goodwill has a lower risk of impairment in the future.
We believe that the company’s inventory, goodwill accrual provision is completed, and the boots have landed, so they can be loaded lightly in the future.
The performance of the game business is dazzling, optimistic that the company will continue to play games for 20 years. The company’s game business is expected to achieve a net profit of 18 in 2019.
2 trillion, brilliant performance, compared with 13 in the same period last year.
7 trillion, is expected to grow 35 per year.
In 19 years of the company ‘s game products, mobile games such as “Perfect World”, “Four Seasons Songs in Cloud Dreams”, “The Legend of Condor Heroes 2”, “My Origins”, “New Swordsman” and othersGames, 2019.
The performance of the new “Smiling Swordsman” launched on the 19th exceeded market expectations. The iOS game bestseller ranking is currently stable at the top 20 and the highest 4th. It once again verifies that the company has mature and excellent product power in heavy MMORPG games, and continues to be optimistic about the company’s presence in MMORPG. Long-term game operation + long life cycle, company 2020.
9 On-line second-dimensional development of the business game Mengjianji series sequel “Mengjianji Cygnus” has a good reputation, the iOS game bestseller ranking is currently stable in the top 100, optimistic about the company’s continued deep cultivation and category in the two-dimensional game categoryWiden.
The company ‘s game products are still a big year for 20 years. We are optimistic about the outstanding performance of new games such as “New God Demon Continent”, “Dream God”, “Remains of War” and “Magic Tower” which are expected to be launched next year.
Third, the investment proposal estimates the company’s net profit for 2019-202114.
0 million yuan, EPS 1.
5 yuan, corresponding to PE40 / 23/18 times, the current market value of 59.1 billion, PE (TTM) at 53% points since 17 years.
Short-term optimistic about the company’s new online launch in the future to contribute to the performance, medium- and long-term optimistic about the company’s heavy MMORPG game long-term operation + long 上海夜网论坛life cycle and research and development strength in the cloud gaming era has a first-mover advantage, maintaining a “recommended” rating.
Fourth, risk warning: film and television content supervision is becoming tighter, film and television performance is less than expected risk; existing game product flow declines too quickly; risk of new game flow is lower than expected risk.