A number of data are urgent, the United States is approaching 3 trillion US dollars, can it save the recession?

A number of data are urgent, the United States is approaching 3 trillion US dollars, can it save the recession?
Beijing time this morning, in the context of continued economic downturn, the US economic rescue plan was upgraded again, and the House of Representatives passed a US $ 484 billion relief bill, which also brought the US government ‘s emergency expenditures for the new coronary pneumonia epidemic to nearly US $ 3 trillion.Behind this, many economic data in the United States continue to send bad news, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits has increased significantly, the Markit manufacturing PMI has fallen to a record low, and some institutions expect the US GDP to shrink unprecedentedly in the second quarter.More than 2,600 people have applied for unemployment benefits, and nearly all of the 11 years of new employment have been erased in the past five weeks. Since the rapid development of the epidemic overseas, the closure of enterprises has caused the US labor market to be sluggish, and the number of applicants for unemployment benefits has hit record highs.According to data released by the US Labor Department on April 23, as of the week of April 18, the number of initial jobless claims after the seasonal adjustment was 442.70,000 people, a decrease of 810,000 from the previous week’s correction level, and a change of 523 from the previous week’s correction.70,000 people.Although this is the third consecutive week of initial jobless claims, it is still at a very high level relative to the same period last year, moving to 578 for four consecutive weeks on April 18.650,000 people, compared with 21 in the same period last year.7.75 million people.The number of applicants for each week on March 28 and April 4 exceeded 6.5 million.In the past five weeks, the total number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has reached 2645.30,000 people, this figure has exceeded the incremental increase of 2244 in the United States since November 2009.20,000 non-agricultural jobs.This means that it took only five weeks for the United States to wipe out the jobs created in the past 11 years.The U.S. Department of Labor issued a statement saying that the number of unemployed people caused by coronavirus continued to rise.The Department of Labor will continue to provide guidance and support to states to help them implement the increased unemployment benefits in the Cares Act. 44 states are currently paying an additional $ 600 per week in benefits provided by the Cares Act.At present, the official unemployment rate data for April has not yet been released. In March, the US non-agricultural employment report showed that the unemployment rate dropped from 3.5% jumped nearly one colony to 4.4%; non-agricultural employment decreased by 70.10,000 people, the first decline since 2010, and the largest decline since March 2009.In fact, the data in March only reflects the beginning of the collapse of the US job market. The US Department of Labor collected data from the first three months of the previous period. At that time, the United States was just beginning to close down.Another data also performed poorly.According to data released by IHS Markit on Thursday, the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI ranked 36 for the first time in April.9. Created a new low of more than 11 years, the former ranking 48.5.In addition, the initial value of the Markit service industry PMI of the United States in April also reached a record low, at 27, the previous variable 39.8.The U.S. composite PMI index fell to 27 in April.4. This is the lowest level since the index was compiled at the end of 2009, and was 40 in March.9.A PMI below 50 means that expectations are shrinking.Chris, chief business economist at IHS Markit?Chris Williamson said in a statement: “The deterioration of the PMI shows that the economy has contracted faster than the worst of the global financial crisis.”Conventional investment banks expect a record replacement of US GDP in the second quarter of this year.”The latest Goldman Sachs report predicts that the US economy may shrink by 34% in the second quarter, and this year will shrink overall6.2%.Morgan Stanley expects US GDP to replace 30 in the second quarter.1%, the average unemployment rate will be pushed up to 12.8%.Once again, the anti-epidemic rescue expenditure has been nearly 3 trillion US dollars. In the case of deterioration of multiple indicators, the US government has further increased its economic rescue efforts.This morning, Beijing time, a rescue bill with a budget of 484 billion US dollars was passed by the US House of Representatives, and the president will sign it into law after it is signed.The bill includes small business assistance, hospital grants and coronavirus testing.Among them, $ 310 billion will be used for the “salary guarantee plan”, which provides loans to small businesses for the payment of wages, benefits, rents, and other expenses; $ 60 billion is used for damage relief loans and small and medium-sized enterprise administration of the United States.Grants; $ 75 billion in funds to subsidize hospitals; $ 25 billion to support coronavirus testing.Since then, the scale of financial assistance launched by the US government during the anti-epidemic period has been close to US $ 3 trillion, but it may still not be enough.Of the US $ 350 billion of the US $ 2 trillion bailout plan approved in March, the funds were used up last week, and the new funds may soon be exhausted.CNBC reported that the bill passed this week may not end the government’s response to the outbreak. Democrats have pushed for an additional bill that requires the federal government to allocate funds to states and municipalities to help them resolve budgetary strains.The Fed also took further action. The Fed announced on Thursday that it will expand the use of its Wage Guarantee Program Liquidity Tool (PPPLF) as soon as possible, so that more lenders that are accredited by the SME Administration can obtain loans.PPPLF provides credit to financial institutions that provide loans under the “salary guarantee plan”, and these loans are called collateral.According to WHO data, as of 10:00 a.m. Central European time, the number of confirmed cases worldwide reached 254.50,000, the number of deaths reached 17.60000.Among them, the number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeds 800,000, and the death toll exceeds 40,000.The research report of CICC pointed out that the global economy is still facing a downward trend, and the policy response is still facing the risk of being too small and too slow.The economic relief policies that major countries have introduced are expected to partially alleviate the cash flow pressure on businesses and households.However, in the face of the impact caused by the “100-year epidemic” epidemic and the interpretation of the global epidemic, the epidemic control time may be later than expected. The global economy is still facing risks. The policy response is still facing the risk of insufficient strength and time lag.It is expected that subsequent countries will continue to increase their fiscal and monetary policies.Regarding the effectiveness of the rescue measures, many experts interviewed by Sauna and Internet at night said that the role of various economic stimulus plans is more to help residents, enterprises, medical departments and other departments to overcome the difficulties during the epidemic.Epidemic prevention and control.Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, said that enterprises cannot produce normally due to the impact of the epidemic, and at the same time, they must face a sharp reduction in orders caused by shrinking consumption in the future.Therefore, some companies will have to face the risk of bankruptcy due to the cash flow crisis brought about by the sharp reduction in income, which will increase the unemployment rate and will aggravate the economic recession.The economic stimulus plan is to help residents and enterprises survive the crisis of survival, prevent the outbreak of debt crisis, and the closure of enterprises, but before the epidemic is controlled, the effect of stimulating production may not be so good.Three major stock indexes rebounded more than 20% in a month. Can US stocks maintain their rebound momentum?In terms of markets, the three major US stock indexes on April 23 were mixed.The soaring decline of US stocks on Thursday was mainly influenced by the poor performance of the antiviral drug Ridexivir in clinical trials.In the first two days of this week, due to the influence of the crude oil market, U.S. stocks fell continuously. The average price of the Dow Jones and S & P 500 fell by more than 4%, and rebounded by about 2% on Wednesday.In fact, since the low of March 23, US stocks have begun to gradually rebound.During the month, the Dow rebounded 29%, the S & P 500 index rebounded 25%, and the Nasdaq rebounded 24%.The current decline in the three major US stock indexes relative to the highest point in mid-February has narrowed from more than 30% to about 17%.The current round of US stocks rebound is believed to be driven by the Fed ‘s extraordinary monetary policy and the huge financial support of the US Treasury, but the market is still divided on the future trend of US stocks.Ping An Securities believes that after the recent strong performance of US stocks, the rebound may soon end.The European and American epidemic decline rate is significantly slower than that of China in February, and there is a serious internal differentiation situation, which will lead to the European and American epidemic situation falling to a controllable situation and it will cost less; the epidemic situation of emerging economies is in the stage of accelerated development.It is possible that China, Europe and the United States will enter the third stage of many emerging market players, and the slenderness will hit the market’s optimistic expectations.In addition, the recent rebound of US stocks has recovered most of the resettlement and lost ground. Considering that the yield of US debt is close to zero, the risk is bound to continue to rise, and it is difficult for US stocks to rise further.Sauna, Ye Wang Gu Zhijuan editor Wang Jinyu proofreading Li Shihui