Bethel (603596): Annual report performance surpasses expectations and raises profit in 2020
Event: The company released a 2019 annual performance forecast in the evening, and the previous net profit is expected to increase by 1.
0 billion, previously + 65% -85%; non-net profit after deduction increases by 1.
700 million, previously + 60% -80%.
Fourth quarter results continued to improve, raising 20 results to 6.
0 billion, EPS is expected to be 1 in 19-21.
86 yuan, corresponding to a maximum of 18Xpe in 20 years, maintaining the “strongly recommended -A” level.
Comments: 1. The fourth-quarter performance exceeded expectations. The 2020 profit forecast was raised based on the company’s performance forecast range. The company’s long-term net profit is expected to be 3.
400 million (+ 65% -85%), of which in the fourth quarter was 86 million-1.
3 billion (+ 630% -1030%).
Taking into account the company’s accrual of BAIC Yinxiang’s receivables and inventory impairment of 84 million 深圳桑拿网 yuan in the fourth quarter of last year, we expect that based on careful consideration, a certain proportion of expenses will still be accrued in the fourth quarter of this year.
If you look back at the respective costs of 18Q4 and 19Q4, it is expected that the internal net profit of 19Q4 will be about 1.
800 million (previously + 33% -83%), a month-on-month increase of + 12% -54%; it is expected that the return to retrospective fee performance in 2019 will be 4.
Tracing back to the source, the endogenous performance was better than the previous year, exceeding the market expectations.
We believe that the main reasons include the following aspects: First, the company’s lightweight business continued to increase, bringing revenue and profit flexibility.
The gross profit margin of lightweight business is above 30%, and the profit structure is constantly optimized.
GM’s Mexico business continued to climb, with new signings in the US and Canada. The business began to climb in small batches, bringing pure incremental growth.
Second, the EPB business is growing rapidly with the new supporting models Changan CS75Plus, Geely Binrui, and Binyue.
In the third and fourth quarters, the production volume of automobiles recovered, and traditional discs had a recovery performance.
2. Race track 1: Chassis brake car electronics leader, epb domestic replacement fast uptake, BBQ 2020 mass production EPB electronic parking segment industry to maintain a growth of more than 15%, we expect the company to be in the 800-85 million in 19 yearsIt is an absolute leader of independent brands, but the current industry market share is only about 7%, and domestic alternative space transmission.
With the penetration rate of superior customers Chery, Geely, and Changan increasing, they entered the supply chain of Dongfeng Nissan and JMC Ford, and also actively contacted other joint venture brands, making rapid progress.
It is expected that the EPB business will maintain a growth of more than 30% in 20 years.
At the same time, the company ‘s disc brakes—EPB electronic parking—brake-by-wire products have a clear technical route. It is expected that the brake-by-wire products will be put into production in 2020. The brake-by-wire is suitable for new energy and smart driving products above the L2 level.
3. Track two: Lightweight chassis system supplier supporting GM North America. The multi-category expansion company is the leader in domestic lightweight steering joints. Recently, it has combined with GM Mexico, the United States, and Canadian factories to add 500 million annualized orders to prove its strength. BasicCovers all models except A-class vehicle platforms.
The volume of North American business is expected to contribute + 50% business growth, meanwhile, the lightweight chassis business industry is growing rapidly, and the gross profit margin above 30% optimizes the profit structure.
Seeing subsequent growth and reorganization, the company actively cooperates with other OEMs in the North American market to obtain incremental space, reorganization, the company reduces composite processes such as low-pressure die-casting, forging, and continuously expands categories on the basis of steering knuckles to increase the value of bicycles and lighten the value of chassis and bicyclesAt around 3,000 yuan, the company’s steering knuckle products range from 200-400 yuan for bicycles with space penetration.
Risk Warning: 1.
Downstream customer volume is less than expected risk; 2.
The possibility of bad debts of customers at the end of the independent brand; 3.
Risks of Business Volatility in the U.S. Market