Tianqi Lithium (002466): The bottom of the industry is now or will be
The industry has bottomed out or is about to bottom out, and the high probability of demand in 2020 will be better than the high probability of the industry in 2019. It will bottom out in the second half of 2019. There are some possible industry downturns that will be postponed to the first half of 2020.
From three perspectives, we believe that the industry has the highest probability of bottoming in the second half of 2019, and may continue into the first half of 2020 under relatively pessimistic conditions.
From the demand side of 2020, the probability is 武汉桑拿 better than 2019.
One is that domestic efforts will be made to achieve the policy goal of 2 million electric vehicles; the other is that 2020 will be the year when overseas car giants launch models on a large scale.
From the perspective of the long-term industry space, it is estimated that there will not be much difference in the demand space for lithium products. First, the global trend of electrification of automobiles has just begun. This is obvious; second is the trend that energy storage will inevitably rise.This point of concern may not be that high.
With the increasing installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power, and the lower and lower cost of lithium batteries, and the better and better performance, energy storage will inevitably rise at some point, greatly driving the demand for lithium batteries. We 杭州桑拿体验网 mayGetting closer to the tipping point.
Looking at energy storage in the long term, it is expected that the demand for lithium batteries will greatly increase and will exceed the demand for lithium batteries for electric vehicles.
Tianqi Lithium Co., Ltd. has deployed the world’s lowest-cost lithium concentrate and salt lake. For mining companies, the core competitiveness is cost. Low cost means that they can survive when the industry is in a downturn and resist the winter.At that time, you can make a lot of money.
Tianqi Lithium Co., Ltd. has deployed the world’s lowest-cost lithium concentrate and salt lake, which is the advantage of the card position.
From the perspective of the distribution of lithium ore resources, the reserves and grade of the Green Bush mine are ranked first in the world.
From the perspective of the distribution of methane, SQM’s Salar de Atacama has a lithium reserve of 4,290 length LCE, which is the largest brine reserve in the world. The lithium grade is 1840ppm, which is the highest grade of all halides.
The allocation of shares was approved, and the financial risk caused by the large amount of debt to acquire SQM equity was eliminated. The biggest risk before Tianqi Lithium was the capital risk of large amount of debt to acquire SQM equity.This risk has basically been eliminated in the application of rights issue.
The potential part of the previous implied this risk, then there must be a repair process after the risk is eliminated. After this process is completed, gradual changes are sufficient to make the fundamentals of the industry and the company.
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent for 2019-2021 will be 4.
22, the corresponding PE is 81/32/17 times, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.
Risk warning: production capacity advances less than expected, product price fluctuates